Opening up the presidential succession was a good tactic to give her wings to Claudia Sheinbaum, who wants her office at the National Palace. But with Morena’s presidential candidacy not rising compared to other contenders, the strategy is leaking and President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is losing control of the process that triggered it. The same thing is happening with the harshness which he tried to impose as a stern rule in the management of succession, a vehement attack on the center of the party.
The setback is the political stature of Sheinbaum, who has gained strength to the extent that some of López Obrador’s own opponents, quasi-officials such as the Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Marcelo Ebrard, rebels, such as Morena’s coordinator in the Senate, Ricardo Monreal, or The President delegates power to them, as does Adan Augusto López, Secretary of the Interior. Sheinbaum is the nominee so far, and her weakness, while bolstering her cosmetic opponents, could turn her into real rivals.
Ebrard, who informally began his path to candidacy in July last year, when he gathered 100 colleagues at the meal to inform them of his decision, the starting point for the creation of the various working groups that make it up Was. The chancellor took advantage of the door that López Obrador had opened in the morning to take him on his word, but until this year he went from speech to action, from passive to active. It began by attending a rally of the candidate of Hidalgo’s governor, Julio Menchaca, and continued to speak with political leaders to seek their support.
The last Puebla governor was Miguel Barbosa, whom he recruited as one of his fundraisers for the pre-campaign. Even with the resources of the state, Barbosa was willing to do the same. Barbosa’s situation reached the ears of President López Obrador, who did not like what happened. It was one thing to authorize Ebrard to campaign, and another to actually start the campaign. López Obrador ordered him to speak to the governor to express the president’s annoyance.
Political vacancies are being filled in Murray, and one of them who is taking advantage of the gap left by Sheinbaum is Monreal, knowing that the head of government of Mexico City, though it is López Obrador to succeed him. It’s also what you’re having the most trouble with finding voice, presence, and credibility. The senator is looking for an audience with the president to talk about his aspirations, but for the same reason, López Obrador does not want to receive him, talking only with him when he wants to discuss a topic of interest to her. sends for.
Monreal, who does not have direct access to the president, has used the channel of López Obrador’s influential personal secretary, Alejandro Escar, to highlight his determination to seek Morena’s presidential candidacy. message can be sent. If the president did not like Barbosa’s attitude, then even less that of Montreal, with whom he had a strong disagreement, although in recent weeks, for circumstantial reasons of the parliamentary agenda and for the particular interest in López Obrador’s initiative, which deserved Requiring a majority, he asked the Secretary of the Interior to look for him and clothe him. It was better to be close to him than to kick him out of the match and create a new adversary for 2024.
López Obrador seems to have realized that the succession monitored since morning is not enough to avoid internal fissures that could become fractures. His word also lacks the strength to contain candidates who are taking center stage in their aspirations who may begin to rival the spotlight that the president has always wanted to monopolize. Murray’s leader, Mario Delgado, has neither the strength nor the ability to become a de facto negotiator for Ebrard—whose creation he is—or Monreal. The Secretary of the Interior shall not enter into a dispute between the two unless the President directs them.
In any case, López Obrador would not ask him. He is the one who seeks to control the presidential succession, and is reviewing how to take full control of Morena to manage the process and, likewise, prevent candidates at other levels from continuing down a collision course, As in various processes. Election Commission for Delgado. What the president intends to do, which he has proposed since opening the succession deck after federal elections last year, is a supervised succession.
This model of control over the direction of things is nothing new. It was practiced in Athens in the 4th century BC and has survived for about two and a half years. For example, a protected democracy belongs to the Electoral College in the United States, which can modify the popular vote if it believes it was wrong. President Donald Trump wanted to build on his influence on the extreme right, a protected democracy frustrated by a lack of cohesion in his own government and the heinous attack on Capitol Hill in February of last year.
López Obrador intends a supervised succession, even provoking the opposition by listing his potential candidates for the presidency. Imposing an opposition candidate is not enough, and it is not clear whether expatriates from party factions are sufficient to avoid fractures in Morena and, consequently, candidacy of candidates. So far, Sheinbaum supports the tough vote of López Obrador, but the head of government of the capital will no longer rise, so the president will have to take control of the party, as he will, and set the brakes on the candidates. Otherwise, you could lose not only succession management, but power after power.