The Savings Banks Foundation (FUNKUS) has warned that shock plans approved by countries such as Germany, Spain, France or Italy to deal with the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine include measures with high budgetary costs, although they help to cope. Effects of energy crisis in the short term, «don’t give a permanent solution to the process of inflation”, intensifying tensions between price controls and changes in the energy model.
The exponential rise in the prices of energy products, and its effect on consumer price indices, has been the first and main consequence of the war in Ukraine.
in the last number economic information notebookA publication edited by Funkas, the unit reviews the shock plans launched in the four largest economies of the European Union (Germany, Spain, France and Italy) to face this new scenario of the energy crisis.
budget effect Of these plans “is considerable, In particular, the Foundation recalls that the amount of resources deployed until the invasion of Ukraine was between 5,000 and 16,400 million euros. Since then, the measures have cost an additional 15,000 million in . is between Germany and 16,000 K Spainup to 27,000 million France,
“These are high budgetary cost measures that, although they help to counter the effects of the energy crisis in the short term, do not provide a permanent solution to the inflationary process, increasing the tension between price controls and changes in energy. Model”, warned the Director of the International Situation and Economy of Funkas, Raymond Torres,
In any case, Funcas believes that Effectiveness In some initiatives, notably non-target rate cuts or general subsidies for fuel consumption, there is «suspicious», although it is preferred by the four countries tested.
“All this enhances the importance of a set the plan To take the most recent measures appropriate by the state of emergency”, Torres insisted.
Company accounts are below pre-pandemic levels
In this new issue of Economic Information Notebook, Funkas also analyzes the growth of accounts of households and companies two years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is clear from the report that, while household accounts remain solid, corporate accounts are below pre-pandemic levels. “While the past balance sheet remains very solid, the companies have deteriorated,” warns the report.
The report concludes that the recovery of household income In 2021 it was more rapid than the companies and their loan volume increased by a very small amount. In addition, households continue to increase the pool of forced savings in 2020.
They had accumulated by the end of 2021, according to Funkas’ calculations. 34,000 million euros of additional savings or moreUnderstanding such differences in relation to the historical average of savings rates from the end of the last crisis to 2019.
This amount is added to the 60,000 million created in 2020. salary payment They practically reached 2019 figures, topped by growth in public employment, and social benefits maintained at 2020 levels, following a public sector conservation effort in that first year of the pandemic.
It should be noted that while in 2020 about 40% of household savings were allocated to real investment, mainly in housing, it was 80% in 2021, which explains the increase in household debt for the first time since 2008. It is minor though.
for their part, companies the spanish were still far To recover the values of two years ago in magnitude like Gross Operating Surplus or gross disposable income,
The differential impact of the crisis by the productive sectors worsened the financial position of activities such as These, Laziness You TurismoMany of these companies were forced to borrow not so much to finance productive investments, but current spending, meaning their financial soundness declined.
The government’s $16,000 crore against the Ukraine invasion doesn’t solve the inflation problem.