We have a problem in Mexico: not many polls are published that assess the popularity of the president and his management of the government. On the oraculus.mx site we have identified only 10 (6 telephones and 4 accommodations) published so far this year. Nothing for a country the size of Mexico. In the United States, so far in May alone, 14 polls have been published on Biden’s popularity. Mexico is not the United States, but neither do we deserve such a paucity of surveys.
Well, with the little data we have, we have to conclude that López Obrador remains a phenomenon in terms of popularity. Yesterday, Reforma newspaper presented its National Housing Survey. 62% of Mexicans approve of AMLO’s way of doing his job as president. 32% reject. His popularity increased by four percentage points in the first four months of the year.
In oraculus.mx’s poll of polls model we add the Reforma results and practically identical results: 62% approval versus 33% (it’s logical: the few polls that do exist weigh heavily on the outcome in the end).
By comparison, 41 months in office, AMLO is the most popular president out of the last five. It is followed by Zedillo with 59% approval, Calderon with 57%, Fox with 54% and Pea with 31%.
While the AMLO remains popular, the population rejects his government’s handling of the two issues most interested in the people: insecurity and the economy. The numbers in this first category are very bad. In the Reforma survey, 81% of Mexicans believe there has been an increase in homicides in the past 12 months, with the country increasing the presence of 67% of violence, 66% of insecurity and 62% of organized crime. In the economy, 41% people express that the country’s economy has deteriorated in the past 12 months and 36% report that their personal economic condition has worsened in the same period. 71 percent of Mexicans believe inflation has hurt them and their families in the past year.
Presidents, on the other hand, are doing very well in evaluating how they are dealing with social programs, education, and unbelievable as it may seem, health. I add two more data. 55% of the population believed the president was supported after a popular referendum to annul his mandate, despite the low turnout. At the same time, 51 percent say that the decision of the opposition parties to reject the electricity reforms causes damage to the country.
By all accounts, those are good numbers for the president. You have to explain why. I launch some hypotheses.
First, April was a month of much promotion for the president regarding the revocation of the mandate. Cities flooded with spectacular announcements in favor of AMLO. Morena’s rallies, travelers and gangs did a lot of publicity. Apparently, it worked: The president’s popularity soared.
Second, the president has an unmatched ability to control the narrative of what is happening in the country, and so far no one has been able to challenge him effectively.
The morning convention is their main weapon. According to him, the story of what is happening in the country comes from there.
Take the matter of health only. The data on the management of the Kovid-19 pandemic, the shortage of medicines and the condition of public health centers are dismal. And yet, 51% of Mexicans believe AMLO is treating the health issue well.
how to explain
well, well because in the story of AMLO what his government did with the pandemic was a success, the shortage is an invention or is about to be solved and the services are being improved in such a way that we have the best of all The health system will be the world. The president sells an alternate reality and always offers hope. There are many people who believe in him.
On the other hand, there is little to challenge the President’s point of view. Some newspapers, radio news and television shows report what is happening with real data. On top of that, López Obrador is in charge of disqualifying him from the presidential pulpit. Add to this that the opposition is still waking up and it lacks a strategy to counter the President’s statement. The result is a very odd position in the battle of narratives in AMLO’s favor.