British author CS Lewis needed 6 years and 7 books to create one of the most famous sagas in science fiction: The Chronicles of Narnia, a collection of novels whose adventures take place in a world of fantasy and magic where everything is possible. Is. To the national pride, one of our most esteemed writers – unjustly accused of plagiarism – PS Castajon, in just 3 years and 7 lies, has brought us to the forefront of world literature by creating his own saga of economic science fiction: The Nadia Chronicles, A collection of lies that define a fictional world where anything is possible.
The most important character in this work is Nadia, the economic vice president, the true common thread of the saga of lies and lies that weaves a wonderfully parallel economic world in which all jobs are uncertain, the Spaniards arrive comfortably at the end of the month and anyone He doesn’t pay 2 euros for gasoline, the most expensive light of a lifetime, nor a shopping cart at its highest price in the past 40 years.
Each of the 7 titles begins with a lie told by the protagonist, Nadia, and is accompanied by a graphic that shows the author’s imagination versus reality:
1. “The economy is growing strongly.”
This statement is part of a loop that the Vice President repeats tirelessly; makes an unreliable growth forecast that, because it may never be realistic, he corrects it downwards and tells us that “growth is becoming more and less” and “next year’s growth is going to be stronger” “, for which he forecasts untrue growth for the next year that starts the cycle, fueling an infinite spiral in which the only real thing is that we are the European country that has been able to recover the level of growth before the pandemic. will take the longest.
Thus, in 2020, after falling -10.8%, they told us that growth in 2021 will be very strong at 9.8%, and we will recover to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022. In April 2021, they revised it to 6.5. % and finally accepted that it was 5.1%.
But we should not worry as growth in 2022 will be very strong at 6.5%, and we will recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022; In April 2022 it has revised this to 4.3% and delays the recovery to pre-pandemic levels to mid-2023.
With a growth of +0.3% in the first quarter of 2022, it is almost impossible to reach 4.3%, but we should not worry because the Sustainability Program Update (SPA) tells us that the growth in 2023 will be very strong, 3.5% and that we Will recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, thus continuing the infinite loop of strong recovery that will come a few years later.
“Evolution from less to more” versus reality in Nadia’s world.
2. “Inflation is fleeting”
From February 2021 onwards, for 15 months, with minimal improvement, the IPC has been increasing. How many months or over how many years can prices “temporarily” go up? Because it is true that time is a relative matter, but the longer the price rise lasts, the worse the consequences for families and businesses.
It’s important to remember here that the CPI is usually published in year-over-year terms, so growth is consolidated over time (prices have risen 10.9% from January 2021 to April 2022) and there is no need to confuse marginal growth. There is no need for prices to fall with the fall in prices. For example, prices rose 6.5% in 2021; If the CPI increased by 5% in 2022, it would not mean that prices declined by 1.5%, but rather that they decreased by 1.5% compared to 2021, but the overall effect would be around 12%. will increase. two years. This is important, as it is most likely to happen.
The second issue with inflation is that by going through the entire shopping basket, you can experience a higher price increase than in the general index. Thus, the general index fell 0.3% in April; However, compared to the previous month, legumes increased by 12%, olive oil by 10.9%, eggs by 9.9% and chicken by 6.7%. Original product in any family shopping cart.
The reality in the face of “transient inflation” in Nadia’s world
3. “Job is created and everything is uncertain”
There is a purple witch in Nadia’s world that creates lots of jobs, quality and permanent jobs. Even workers who have fixed-discontinuous contracts, in which the worker works only a few months of the campaign and collects unemployment the rest of the year, has ceased to be counted as unemployed when they no longer work. and are considered indefinite workers throughout the year. In April alone there were 240,000 workers under this miraculous formula of indefinite work that does not change at all the rights of workers in relation to their previous status.
In the real world, only public employment (214,900 jobs) has been created since the start of the pandemic, all of which is temporary (compared to the need for private employers) while 127,400 private jobs have been lost.
The reality in the face of «indefinite job creation» in the world of Nadia
4. “The Public Debt Is Shrinking”
The public debt has reached an all-time high of 1.454 trillion euros, an increase of 218 billion euros from before the pandemic. As long as we have the public deficit, the absolute numbers of the public debt will continue to increase, which is guaranteed by this government’s level of waste, as recognized in the documentation sent to Brussels, and it is very likely that we Will reach 1.5 trillion in debt by the end of this year. The public debt has only dwindled in Nadia’s world, 6,000 euros more each Spaniard since the reign of PS Castajon in the real world.
Reality Versus “Debt Reduction” in Nadia’s World
5. “Blame Putin”
The government is not to blame for anything, everything is to blame for Putin’s war: that we have fallen more than any European country; that we take longer to recover than anyone else; that we pay for the most expensive electricity, even though we do not depend on Russia for energy; that we have inflation (+8.4%) 28% higher than Italy (6.6%) or 55% higher than France (5.4%); that we double the average unemployment rate in Europe, overall (13.5% vs. 6.2% EU27 average), youth (29.6% vs. 13.9%) and female (15.3% vs. 6.6%); That we have the highest Okun misery index in the whole of Europe…
At Nadia, we have the best government in the world and it does everything better than anyone else.
6. “Reducing taxes destroys public health and education.”
In Nadia’s world, Evil Rights (PP) slashes taxes because it seeks to take away public health and education.
In the real world, autonomous communities governed by the PP reduce taxes but allocate 5 more points of their budget to social spending than those governed by the Left. And as an example, Andalusia is an autonomous community that allocates the highest percentage of its budget to education, which is 23.6%, 4.8 points higher than the average for autonomous communities ruled by the left.
Reality in front of “lowering taxes destroys public health and education” in Nadia’s world
7. Stability Program Update
The document sent to Brussels is, in itself, a collection of all the lies that constitute the saga and is, therefore, a worthy conclusion to the heptology of the author, PS Castajon. The European Commission has already lowered the growth forecast for this year to 4% and the Bank of Spain warned that: “The information known after the publication of these projections, that GDP growth in the first quarter is lower than expected, will be In the absence of additional shocks, the expected GDP growth rate for this year as a whole points to a further downward revision.”
For those readers who, unlike what happens in Nadia’s world, pay 2 euros for gasoline, the most expensive shopping cart ever, and who have a hard time making ends meet, I ask you patience. I ask to keep There is less and less time to be able to “replace” Nadia with another minister, and the president of the government with an even better chairman of government. In fact, everyone living in Andalusia has the opportunity, on June 19, to push a little so that these replacements are closer. I encourage you to do so.
- Xavier Writer he is an economist