Moody’s, the risk measurement agency, has lowered its growth forecast for the eurozone to 2.5% this year, three tenths from the previous one, due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, although it raises it by a tenth to 2.3% for 2023. Is.
In its Global Macroeconomic Report published this Thursday, Moody’s has lowered its growth forecasts for both advanced and developing economies. guerarecession China and the effect of increasing inflation in the purchasing power of consumers.
agency location europa In form of Areas most affected by the Ukrainian conflictBecause of its proximity and its reliance on Russian energy, to the extent that supply cuts would force energy rationing in many regions, causing a recession.
It adds that the conflict contributes to the strengthening of inflationary pressures and to control of economic activity, which is why low forecast For France (at 2.2%, half a point lower) and Italy (2.3%, nine tenths less), although it maintains those Germany at 1.8% and that United Kingdomat 2.8%.
Globally, Moody’s has lowered its growth forecast for G20 economies to 3.1% this year, a 2.8 points lower. Developed countries would increase by 2.6 percent, six tenths less, and developing countries by 3.8 percent, four tenths less.
It has also spoiled the expectations about them US economywhich would increase by 2.8% (nine tenths less); Japani2.4% (five tenths less); China4.5% (seven tenths less), and India8.8% (less than three tenths).
Key factors for the future are, for Moody’s, the development of the war in Ukraine, the way in which monetary policy has been tightened and the trajectory of the Chinese economy, which links the policies it has adopted to counter those factors. are increasingly affecting the economy, such as climate change, food, energy, defense or cyber security.
Moody’s cuts Eurozone growth forecast for this year to 2.5 percent